Currency Update 29-01-2015

29 Jan, 2015 – Currency Update 29-01-2015

Europe

The Euro remained lower ahead of German unemployment and CPI figures. Economists expect the unemployment to remain steady at 6.5% while the year-on-year inflation rate is forecast to slip into negative territory for the first time since September 2009. Any disappointing data may send the currency lower despite offering little for forward looking policy bets. The Euro was little moved at $1.1285 but stood well below Tuesday’s high of $1.1409. Against its Japanese peer, it added 0.2% to 132.8014 Yen.

Sterling tumbled from the 1-week high hit yesterday amid a lack of major market-moving data for the UK. The Pound was down 0.1% to $1.5133 after reaching $1.5216 on Wednesday, the strongest since Jan.16. Against the 19-nation currency, it was faintly up at 1.3425 Euro, 0.5% from the 7-year high hit on Monday. It added 0.3% to 178.3812 Yen.

North America

The U.S Dollar extended its gains after the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would remain “patient” in deciding when to raise interest rates, while acknowledging that inflation may decline further. The Fed also said the world’s largest economy was expanding “at a solid pace” with strong job gains keeping intact expectations that it will raise interest rates from the middle of this year. The Fed’s optimism and hawkish tone stand in sharp contrast to many of its counterparts, namely the ECB which launched an economic stimulus last week; the Bank of Canada which cut its interest rate; Singapore where there was a rate cut no later than yesterday and the RBNZ which abandoned its bias to raise interest rates. The Greenback inched 0.2% to 117.6889 Yen. Against the single currency, it traded little changed at $1.1285 per Euro, well below Tuesday’s trough of $1.1409.

Around the world

The Yen remained lower versus the U.S Dollar amid month-end buying by Japanese importers. Japan’s currency fell as much as 0.5% before trading at 117.6889 per Dollar, still down 0.2% from late U.S trades, gaining support on a report from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry which showed retail sales rose for a sixth straight month in December, providing evidence of a gradual recovery in private consumption. Against the common currency, it depreciated 0.2% to 132.8014 per Euro.

Meanwhile, Australia’s Dollar plunged back below the $0.79 following reports the RBA is considering a rate cut. The so-called Aussie hovered near the 5-1/2 year low of $0.7860 hit on Monday and last fetching $0.7868, down 0.45% from late U.S hours. The move followed media reports stating the RBA would cut the benchmark rate next week or at least signal the possibility of rate cuts this year. It skidded 0.2% to 69.84 Euro cents. Against Japan’s currency, it fell 0.3% to 92.4975 Yen, moving towards the 10-month trough of 92.3719 Yen hit earlier this week.

New Zealand’s Dollar dropped to a fresh 4-year low versus the U.S Dollar after the Reserve Bank opened doors to a possible rate cut. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler kept the official cash rate unchanged as expected but surprised markets by saying the next adjustment could be down. He also reiterated that the currency was unjustifiably high and its level was unsustainable. The Kiwi plunged 0.3% to $0.7302, a level unseen since March 2011, having depreciated as much as 1.9% yesterday. It slid 0.2% to 64.72 Euro cents, the weakest level in 3 weeks. Against its Japanese peer, it added 0.1% to 86.0549 Yen but remained within reach of the 3-month trough of 85.9425 Yen hit earlier today.

Interbank Rates

GBP/EUR 1.34251
GBP/USD 1.51311
GBP/JPY 178.317
EUR/USD 1.12708
EUR/JPY 132.823
USD/AUD 1.27588
USD/CAD 1.25406
USD/NZD 1.36936
USD/JPY 117.847

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We all die the goal isn’t to live forever, the goal is to create something that will

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The guy that predicted $50 for oil says it’s going LOWER

I remember reading about Shawn Driscoll, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Era Fund PRNEX, -2.92% , a mutual fund that focuses on natural resource stocks.

Driscoll was bearish on Oil , Gold , and all other commodities are in a secular bear market ,He said oil would bottom out around $50 over the next 10 years.

10 weeks later it went down to $48, but with such a drop he expected Saudi Arabia to cut but didn’t ” Once Saudi Arabia didn’t cut production, it became clear to us there was a problem.”

Economics 1 o 1-
To much supply , low demand = falling price

Goldman Sachs is looking for $40 Brent and Bank of America Merrill Lynch says crude futures could fall to $31 a barrel this quarter.

This downturn may be bigger than that. Driscoll thinks it has a lot in common with the mid-1980s, when crude prices plunged by two-thirds in less than six months and “it took nearly two decades for oil prices to rebound to pre-bust levels and remain there,” The Wall Street Journal reported.

But he doesn’t think it will stay there , it will bounce back up to $60/70 .

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Currency Update 28-01-2015

Europe

The Euro weakened as markets await the first policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve this year. Investors are closely-watching the Fed’s response to the policy easing from its European counterpart which sent the currency to the recent lows. The Euro last fetched $1.1363, down 0.1% and a far cry from the 11-year trough of $1.1098. Against its Japanese peer, it added 0.1% to 134.1494 Yen after plunging to 130.4681 Yen on Monday, a level unseen since September 2013.

Sterling continued to decline after the Office of National Statistics National Statistics reported the UK economy expanded by 0.5%, a slower growth than the 0.7% seen the third quarter and below the 0.6% figure expected by economists. The Pound dropped 0.2% to $1.5165 and was little changed at 1.3370 Euro. It was little moved at 179.0819 Yen after jumping to a week high at 179.3388 Yen on Tuesday.

North America

The U.S Dollar came under pressure after disappointing spending data on Tuesday. The report from U.S Census Bureau showed decline durable goods orders fell 3.4% in December casting doubt on the optimism about the world’s largest economy. The data came ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates later in the day where economists expect a more dovish stance regarding any monetary policy tightening by mid-year. The Greenback was up 0.1% to $1.1363, well off the recent 11-year high of $1.1098. Against Japan’s currency, it added 0.1% to 117.9476 Yen.

Around the world

The Yen resumed its decline before the Fed concludes the 2-day meeting later in the day. Japan’s currency slid 0.1% to 117.9476 per Dollar amid divergence in monetary policy direction. The BOJ unexpectedly increased its unprecedented bond purchases on Oct. 31 only days after the U.S central bank said it would end a bond-buying program. Markets expect the Fed to signal it remains on track to begin raising interest rates later this year. Against the single currency, the Yen continued on its downward trend, last standing at 134.1494 per Euro, down 0.1% on the day and moving away from the 1-1/2 year high of 130.4681 per Euro hit on Monday.

Elsewhere, Australia’s Dollar surged above the $0.80 mark for the first time in 5 days after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released higher than expected inflation figures, crushing market expectations of a rate cut. Australia’s headline CPI rose 0.2% in the December quarter and at an annual rate of 1.7% while the trimmed-mean rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, beating forecast of a 0.5 growth. The so-called Aussie jumped to $0.8005 before trading at $0.7994, up 0.7% from late U.S hours and edging away from the 5-1/2 year low of $0.7860 hit on Monday. Against the shared currency, it rocketed 1.1% to 70.52 Euro cents after plummeting to 69.65 on Tuesday, the least since Jan.22. It climbed 1.0% to 94.5028 Yen having touched 92.3719 Yen earlier this week, unseen since March 2014.

New Zealand’s Dollar remained under pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision later in the day. While no change to the 3.5% benchmark rate is expected, some economists expect the bank to remove its tightening bias. The Kiwi was little changed at $0.7452 after touching $0.7406 on Monday, the weakest level since November 2011. It added 0.2% to 65.65 Euro cents but remained close to its 5-day trough of 65.46 cents hit yesterday. Against its Japanese peer, it inched up 0.25% to 88.0631 Yen after plunging to 87.0082 Yen on Monday, the weakest level in 3 months.

Interbank Rates

GBP/EUR 1.33744
GBP/USD 1.51702
GBP/JPY 179.092
EUR/USD 1.13427
EUR/JPY 133.906
USD/AUD 1.25004
USD/CAD 1.24242
USD/NZD 1.34075
USD/JPY 118.055

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Tokyo named safest city in the world

I was just reading the Economist’s Intelligence Unit that has released the ranking of the safest major cities in the world, and Tokyo comes out on top.

Of course for anyone that lives here understands and appreciates this .

There was different factors that came into account of the rankings .

•Digital security — This measures the quality of a city’s cybersecurity, the frequency of identity theft, and other factors related to digital security.

•Health security — This metric looks at average life expectancy of a city’s citizens as well as the ratio of hospital beds to the size of the population.

•Infrastructure — This looks at factors like the quality of roads and the number of people who die from natural disasters.

•Personal safety — This category looks at more traditional safety measures like crime, the level of police engagement, and the number of violent crimes.

The rankings were :

1. Tokyo
2. Singapore
3. Osaka
4. Stockholm
5. Amsterdam
6. Sydney
7. Zurich
8. Toronto
9. Melbourne
10. New York

If you like to work in the safest city drop us a email

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Investors must brace themselves for six months of ‘Greek-led volatility’

Investors are being warned to expect “Greek-led volatility” for six months, by a leading global analyst at one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, which has $10bn under advice from 80,000 clients, makes his observations following yesterday’s elections. Anti-austerity party Syriza has emerged as the victor and has agreed to form a government with the rightwing anti-bailout Independent Greeks.

Mr Elliott comments: “Investors can expect Greek-led market volatility for at least six months until a Syriza-led government is better understood.

“The Euro will weaken – perhaps to parity with the dollar – over the next six months as investors seek ‘safe havens’ as other populist parties in the Eurozone are likely to rise in the opinion polls and echo Syriza with their demands to end austerity.

“The sliding Euro will further boost exporters who got a leg-up from last week’s shock and awe quantitative easing package unveiled by the ECB.

“Indeed, one of the ironies of the Euro crisis is that the more that Greece looks likely to cause problems for the single currency, the more Germany and the core economies benefit from resulting Euro weakness.”

He adds: “Despite Europe’s main share markets rising – after initial falls – and the Euro recovering somewhat today, the announcement that Prime Minister-elect Alexis Tsipras’s main coalition partner is the centre-right Greek Independents will generate more uncertainty, leading to more market turbulence. This is largely because the move will hinder Syriza’s negotiations with the Troika and, I suspect, hinder reform.

“I’d give it a 30 per cent chance that Tspiras is the new Lula da Silva, the leftwing modernizer of Brazil, with investors actually supporting the government after a rocky start; 40 per cent that it turns into a problem-ducking coalition government that doesn’t address long term structural problems but investors stick with it; and a 30 per cent chance that the coalition initiates some sort of socialist revolution.”

Mr Elliott concludes: “It is early days and the story is just beginning. However, what history teaches us is that what is happening in Greece politically will have far-reaching effects on the capital markets and will impact investor returns.

“The changing political landscape in Greece, and across Europe, is presenting numerous risks and opportunities for investors globally. As such, the shifting dynamics must be monitored carefully to be able to benefit from these opportunities and to mitigate the avoidable risks.

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“Every Pro was once an amateur. Every Expert was once a beginner. So dream Big and start Now!”

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