Less than two months before Scotland’s vote on independence, investors in financial markets seem largely unmoved, as the complexity, the costs and expectations of interest rate rises discourage taking action against a possible victory for the ‘Yes’ side.
“Investors are completely not positioning themselves for the potential of a vote in favour of independence,” said Insight Investment’s head of currency Paul Lambert, speaking to Reuters.
The ‘No’ voters are ahead by about 20 points, excluding the undecided, which seems to be enough to convince many investors that anything else is too remote a possibility to worry about. Bookmakers too consider a ‘No’ vote as highly likely, offering odds of just 1/8.
Morgan Stanley’s strategy team has been rare among banks to put a figure on the chances of a ‘Yes’ vote – 25%, ascertaining that sterling and UK government bonds would come under some pressure if Scottish leader Alex Salmond’s nationalists won the vote, while Citi advised clients to try to offset any potential losses by buying credit default swaps on UK government bonds.
A Yes vote would have huge implication to Scotland as they wouldn’t have a currency , a lender of last resort and membership to the European Union is highly doubtful . £ would loose 10% of its value if the Yes would win .
Still over 6 weeks to go and a lot can happen .