Archive for the ‘ UK ’ Category

How to make galloping returns on forex 2014 .

This is my personal view on forex and how I am going to take advantage of this . My view is Sterling will be the global safe haven currency of 2014 this is due Britain’s strengthening economy makes it a magnet for inward investment . The economy had had a huge turnaround with economic data going from bad to strong growth and there is no end in sight .

I have been looking how emerging market currency has had a huge hit as investors take money out as the economy’s has slowed down , also they hedging themselves on the Fed tapering program , every time the FED has tapered it has created a ripple effect , Argentina and Asian Crisis to name few .

Another reason the pound is strengthening is the UK has a stable political situation , the USA has been damaged greatly with the shutdown , the EU political / economy situation hasn’t changed or improved .

Looking at it I can see the pound reaching :

•$ -1.75 / 1.82
•€ – 1.30
•¥ – 185 / if interest rate increases 200.

Good time to take advantage of this , if you like to know how mail me .

Here’s to the year of the horse and galloping returns


London still ranks as top financial centre

London still ranks as top financial centre.

London remains at the top of a six-monthly ranking of global financial centres by a consultancy firm, against a backdrop of merits as a money-making centre.

The UK capital has led the Global Financial Centres Index since its launch in 2007, despite the turmoil of the banking crisis and problems in the Euro-zone. However, even though people have been ranking London highly in previous surveys because of its reputation, more recently such reputation has been damaged by the performance of the economy and controversial issues such as Libor.

Notably, cities in the Euro-zone such as Paris, Munich, Amsterdam and Milan also suffered declines, as uncertainty in the currency bloc translating into a lack of confidence among finance professionals. For instance, Brussels’ rating fell by 44 points.

Meanwhile, respondents also commented on a brain drain from financial centres in the Euro-zone, as professionals are now lured to better prospects in Asia or London.

Interestingly, South American centres such as São Paulo and Buenos Aires rose in the rankings, reflecting a growing perception of their importance among financiers. Rio de Janeiro climbed 17 places in the table.


UK heading for fastest GDP growth since 2007

UK heading for fastest GDP growth since 2007.

Economists believe that the UK economy is heading for its fastest expansion since before the financial crisis, subsequently upgrading their forecasts for growth through 2015.

Gross domestic product will rise 1.3% this year, and 2% in 2014 – a pace of growth that would be the fastest since 2007.

Economist Jens Larsen said that, “The consensus forecast has moved a long way very, very quickly”.

Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney still questions how quickly this recovery can lower the UK’s unemployment rate, after he introduced forward guidance last month and linked the jobless rate directly to the policy stance. BOE policy makers believe that productivity will pick up as the economy recovers, meaning that UK companies will get more output from their existing workers, which will limit the pace of hiring.

“If you get a very powerful recovery, the arguments for guidance, for the extended period of low rates, just look so much weaker. It’s a bit of a communication challenge”, Larsen added.

Economists also see GDP growth accelerating to 2.4% in 2015, whereas consumer spending will rise 1.6% this year and in 2014, while exports will increase 1.8% and 4.7%.


UK factories booming again

UK factories booming again.

UK Chancellor George Osborne seriously hopes that factory growth will help rebalance the economy – after it was announced that manufacturing output in the UK grew at its strongest pace for nearly two decades in August.

The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index findings show that factories in the UK are ‘booming again’ as the manufacturing sector is indeed recovering, with activating rising to 57.2, its best level since February 2011.

More precisely, output rose at the fastest pace since July 1994, while new orders increased at their strongest pace since August 1994.

Senior Economist Rob Dobson explained that rising demand from domestic customers was being accompanied by a return to growth of the Euro-zone, Britain’s largest trading partner.

The improvement in the sector adds weight to evidence that the speed of economic recovery is increasing, with GDP for the second quarter of the year measured at 0.7%. In fact, jobs in the UK increased for the fourth consecutive month.

“We’re seeing a consistent and positive trend across UK manufacturing and today’s data reinforces the view that the sector is back on the road to recovery”, another Economist added.


Scots will be better off if they reject independence

Scots will be better off if they reject independence
A document yet to be unveiled by British Prime Minister David Cameron tomorrow, estimates that Scottish households will be better off if they reject independence, highlighting the so-called border effect.

A new Treasury report analysing the economic benefits of having a borderless United Kingdom, claims that the remaining part of a UK-wide single market would be worth £5 billion to Scotland over the next 30 years.

It argues that Scottish independence would create ‘significant headwinds’ to economic growth and could see exports to the remainder of the UK drop by 80%. To solidify the argument, the report cites academic research which estimates that trade between the US and Canada is 44% lower than it would be if there was no international border between them.

“International evidence shows that flows of trade, labour and capital are much larger between two regions of the same country than between two (otherwise similar) regions of two different countries”.

The conclusion therefore gravitates towards the potential damage to the macroeconomic environment because of the extent to which the Scottish economy relies on the remainder of the UK for its imports and exports.

Today, Labour Party politician Gordon Brown re-enters the independence debate with a keynote speech. A recent opinion poll showed that the pro-UK referendum campaign has opened up a 30-point lead over its opponents.


David Cameron loses Commons vote on Syria action

I was so happy and proud to read about this today . That the UK government had used the democratic process and listened to the voters and international law .

To much of today “news ” is from social media and not from reliable source .

Don’t get me wrong if the Syrian government is using chemical weapon on its people then action is needed but only if the UN confirm so and only with a UN resolution .

Iraq thought us evidence is required before such action

Tony Evans


Historic Vote Sees Cameron Defeated by Lawmakers on Syria

BBC- David Cameron loses Commons vote on Syria action


Pension gap widens at FTSE 100 companies

BBC -Pension gap widens at FTSE 100 companies

Pension gap widens at FTSE 100 companies
6 August 2013 Last updated at 00:10

The average FTSE 100 pension scheme’s assets can cover 91% of its liabilities, the report says
The pension deficit at the UK’s largest companies has grown slightly, according to a report by pensions expert LCP.

Its annual report shows the gap between assets and liabilities in defined pension schemes widened from £42bn to £43bn in the year to the end of June.

This was despite an increase in funding and a rising stock market.

The main cause was continuing low interest rates, which affect the calculation of a pension scheme’s future liabilities.

LCP’s Accounting for Pensions report, which looks at the pension schemes of the FTSE 100 companies, also found that rising life expectancy has added £40bn to liabilities over the last eight years.

The report also looked back over the past 20 years.

Even though share prices are rising and employers put £22bn more into their schemes, a deficit of £43bn remains.

Final salary schemes

This means that the average FTSE 100 pension scheme’s assets today can cover 91% of its liabilities.

Twenty years ago, that figure was 120% and companies were able to enjoy contribution “holidays”.

LCP also pointed out that 20 years ago, virtually all FTSE 100 companies offered a final salary scheme. Today, no FTSE 100 company offers such schemes to new employees.

LCP notes that auto-enrolment is back, having disappeared from the pension landscape in 1988.

LCP partner and the report’s author, Bob Scott, said that FTSE 100 companies now disclose much more about the state of their pension schemes in their annual accounts, compared with 20 years ago.

He added that going forward companies would be aiming and hoping to “completely remove any pensions risk from their balance sheets”.

“This may be good news for their shareholders but is unlikely to improve the lot of those employees who are relying on good workplace pensions for their retirement,” he said.


UK records best retail sales in July since 2006

UK records best retail sales in July since 2006.

The British heatwave seems to have driven the best sales in July for seven years – according to the British Retail Consortium and KPMG, retail sales rose by 2.2% and total sales 3.9%.

Retail sales for July also represent the second best monthly performance in 2013. Food and clothing sales led the upwards surge as shoppers spent more on barbecue food and summer clothing.

The BRC said that the food performance was the strongest outside Christmas and Easter since at least 2009, boosting the supermarket and grocery industry.

David McCorquodale, head of retail at KPMG, said it had been a “golden month” for retail sales. Helen Dickinson, director general of the BRC, said, “The Lions, Murray, Chris Froome in the Tour de France and the start of the Ashes series all contributed to the positive summer feeling.”

Conversely, the growth in online sales slowed down by almost half. Internet sales grew 7.9% year-on-year last month, compared to 15.6% in July 2012.

DIY and gardening were also strong categories, together with toys including paddling pools, while in electricals, fridges, freezers and air-conditioning systems did well, although tablet computer sales appear to have flattened out.

Books suffered from the absence of any equivalent to the smash-hit Fifty Shades Of Grey last year, and sales were significantly lower.


Eurozone recession could end this quarter

Eurozone recession could end this quarter.

Analysts are hopeful that the eurozone’s recession could end in the third quarter, after official data showed that the region’s businesses had returned to growth for the first time in 18 months.

The Markit eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded growth of 50.5 in July, up from an initial estimate of 50.4. Anything above the 50 mark signals growth. The sentiment survey of thousands of purchasing managers is widely seen as a reliable gauge of economic expansion.

The 17-nation bloc’s services sector rose to 49.8, up from an initial estimate of 49.6, while manufacturing surprised with a strong 50.3-point performance, pushing the combined measure into positive territory.

Job losses were the weakest in 16 months, as rates of decline eased in France, Italy and Spain, while Germany saw a modest return to job creation.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said that the news confirmed a welcome return to growth for the eurozone economy at the start of the third quarter, raising hopes that the region could claw its way out of its longest-running recession.

For Europe, the strong figures offer a glimmer of hope that the six consecutive quarters of economic contraction may finally be ending.


Who’s richer Germany / Greece /Spain /Cyprus ? The answer would surprise you

A great article in the UK Telegraph talking about the wealth in Euro largest economy .
Everyone during the financial crisis thought Germany should bank role the Euro , should they ?

ECB survey median net household wealth :
#just over €50,000 in Germany
#Greece the figure was just over €100,000
#Spain €180,000
#Cyprus over €260,000

GDP per head, then of course Germany comes out well ahead of Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Spain and Italy. But in fact Germany is only just above the eurozone average.

Have a read of the article it will surprise you .

Tony Evans

The Germans are walking tall in the eurozone, but just how rich are they?


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