Posts Tagged ‘ abe ’

Central Bank says Japan is ‘recovering’

The Bank of Japan issued a more upbeat assessment of the Japanese economy on Thursday, saying for the first time in more than two years that conditions were recovering.

TBOJ stuck with a pledge to expand the monetary base by 60 to 70 trillion yen ($709 billion) per year, as the economy is starting to recover moderately.

On this news the yen strengthened vs the USD to 98.76 .

What’s key for Abenomics is Prime minster is to win the July 21 election , this would end the split parliament , this would enable Abe to push through changes to increase the competitive of Japan economy .Lets see!

Abenomics has had such a great effect on changing the mood in Japan , that’s a huge success but isn’t enough to make Japan grow .

Bank of Japan – Economy is indeed recovering
For the first time in more than two years, the Bank of Japan issued an optimistic statement about the state of the economy, saying that conditions were recovering.

In a self-praising move, the BoJ said that the aggressive monetary easing measures it implemented in April are working to stimulate the economy and reverse consumer-price deflation.

Following a two-day policy meeting, the bank said in a statement that, “Japan’s economy is starting to recover moderately”.

This therefore signals that the central bank is unlikely to take additional steps soon.

The announcement marks the first time since early 2011 that the bank formally described the economy as being on an expansionary path. In fact, the bank’s official view has steadily brightened over the past six months.

Under Governor Kuroda, who took over last March, the BoJ has been pumping an unprecedented amount of money into the economy through increased purchases of government bonds. The board said on Thursday that it would stick with its goal of expanding Japan’s monetary base at a rate of Y60tn to Y70tn a year.

Following the announcement, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond has traded in a tight range between 0.79 and 0.96% for nearly two months now.


Tony Evans

Japan exports improve most since 2010 over 10%

We seeing Abenomics arrow 1 & 2 having a huge effect on the exports.
That’s one full quarter of improving result , showing that the market is going right way .

Lets hope this continues .the big test will be the up and coming election , if Abe wins then we can see some proper structural changes , if he gets 2/3 majority we can see some constitutional changes !

The third arrow missed the target the first time hope his next aim is better

Japan exports improve most since 2010.

It has been three years since Japan enjoyed this level of exportation. In May, shipments shot up 10.1% from the previous year, marking the third consecutive month of improvement.

Shipment exports picked up in key markets such as the US, rising 16.3% from a year earlier, whilst shipments to China increased 8.3%.

A weaker Yen boosted exporters’ business in May, as it made Japanese goods cheaper overseas, thus increasing profits in an industry that Japan largely depends on.

Such positive date therefore boosts Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to revive the economy.

Morgan Stanley Analyst Shuji Tonouchi explained that the breakdown shows that export volumes are still a little weak, but demand from the United States is ‘doing well’. Overall, he added, “We can certainly say that exports are headed in the right direction”.

On the other hand, imports also rose by 10% in May from a year ago and therefore, the trade balance came to a deficit of 993.9bn yen. This marks the 11th straight month that Japan has posted a deficit, as energy import costs continue to be high after nuclear plants were shut down.

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Dollar’s upside capped at ¥95 level | The Japan Times

Without a clear policy from both sides, FED on wether it will start to taper QE and when . then from Abe on his policy on his 3 arrow . Abe will do nothing until the election is over .

Until then 95 will be the norm , but personally I see the USD strengthening in the short term ,commodities weakening also .

Tony Evans

Dollar's upside capped at ¥95 level | The Japan Times.

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Has the market got fed up of promises from Abe ?Nikkei – 3.83%

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction. The markets are not impressed ! As such the Stocks
slid as he said the effort won’t begin for months !! Market don’t like a promise of the future , they like it now !! Also people want details not promises .

“It’s hard for the government to raise hopes with the growth strategy — the
third arrow — because it will be some time before it takes effect,” said Junko
Nishioka
, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a
former Bank of Japan official. “The government is going to have to rely on the Bank of
Japan to boost market expectations.”

The growth strategy to be unveiled next week is  part three of the prong attach !It is part of an economic revival plan following fiscal and monetary stimulus. The first two stages were greeted with enthusiasm by investors, stocks BOOMED but now have entered a correction from the biggest rally in a quarter century and the yen has risen against the dollar after touching a four-and-a-half year low.

Abe has vowed to deregulate energy , health , infrastructure and double foreign investment .

Lets see what next weeks delivers .

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/abe-pledges-campaign-to-loosen-japan-business-regulations.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22751158

Nikkei 13,014.90 -518.89 -3.83%

World investors more bullish on Japan than any other country : Abenomics 2 – 0

abe

Investors are more confident in a Japanese leader than any time since at least September 2010, with optimism about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies exceeding that for counterparts in the U.S., Europe and China.

Japan offers one of the top two opportunities globally in the next year,
according to 33″ of respondents, up from 21% and beating China for
the first time in surveys dating back to 2009. Considering Japan is one of China largest investors that does make sense !

As I mentioned in January Prime Minster Abe is effectively creating his war cabinet on deflation , last piece is the win the up and coming elections .

What Abe has done is creating a change in the Japanese mind set , but also he has also changed the perspective of Japan on the global stage .

May this continue for a long long time .

From a very optimistic Tokyo ,

 

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/japan-becomes-most-favored-nation-in-poll-showing-abe-optimism.html

http://redd.it/1ehlku

“Abenomics ” the winners & loosers

for every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction

Newton said that in 1687 and I can say that that is true today of the effect of “Abenomics” .Don’t get me wrong it’s exactly what Japan needs to kick start its economy but this will effect Japan’s biggest and also faster growing demography the “retired or silver saver as they known here ”

To understand this you need to understand inflation & deflation :
•inflation – increase in prices ( money has less purchasing power”
•deflation -prices fall ( money has more purchasing power )

So in a deflation environment which Japan has been for in the last 20 years “cash was king ” elderly saw their income power increase every year , with Abenomics this would end and this purchasing power would fall . The retired in Japan have assets in excess of $7 trillion ( that’s nearly as much as the GDP of UK ,Germany & half of France !)

The winners will be the stock market , forex and in the Japan Economy .The losers will the retires and people on fixed income ,

Personally I hope Abenomics will succeed Japan needs it, but it all comes down the “silver savers” will they allow it?

No one is bigger than the market forces , but the silver savers is quiet a force,

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The Yen – Currency War or just Growth ?

Prime Minister Abe has survived a meeting with US President Obama without having his policy criticised. ‘Abenomics’ is seen in Japan as a way of growing the economy not devaluing the currency, if the Yen weakens that’s a bi product. Prime Minister Abe appointed key people to lead the Bank of Japan Kuroda-sama as Governor, a person liked in Japan but also respected internationally, which is key if Japan is going to succeed.
The Yen has fluctuated at times quite widely between 90-95 Yen range over 5% swings.
Now it seems so much sentiment has been placed on ‘Abenomics’ what’s going to happen next??
At least now we have a clear plan for getting out of deflation environment and into a true inflation target.
On the other hand we have no evidence of structural change to accommodate this. Personally I still feel people are remembering the BOOM and aftermath of the last surge and slightly cautious from jumping in.
But I do feel there has been a huge shift in people minds and the attitude is ‘What if this all true? Can Japan go through another BOOM?

Let’s hope so, I look forward to seeing what happens .
Gambette Kudasai

Tags :#abenomics #abe #yen #japan

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