Posts Tagged ‘ abenomics ’

Abenomics helped to boost by revised data , BOOMING

Japan's hopes for recovery boosted by revised data.

Japan has revised its growth numbers between January and March, adding to hope of recovery for the world’s third-largest economy.

The Japanese economy grew 1% in the first three months of the year, an increase from the primary estimates of 0.9%.

The cabinet office said that this would indicate a yearly growth of 4.1%.

The revision also had an encouraging effect on investors – the Nikkei 225 index jumped over 3% in early trade.

Martin Schulz of the Fujitsu Research Institute told the BBC that the policy measures introduced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Japanese central bank to drag the economy out of stagnation, spur growth and strengthen the yen – which had fallen by nearly 25% against the US dollar last November – were finally starting to be felt.

These measures included doubling the national money supply and keeping long-term interest rates low in order to boost domestic demand and generate higher consumer prices.

In light of the revised data, which indicated an increase in domestic demand, analysts have said that the Japanese policymakers appear to have had the right idea.

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$600billion slump in Nikkei sees Monday up 3.38%

What a cracking start to the week , Nikkei is signaling that Japanese shares may arrest a three-week, $600 billion slump!

A slight policy change in Japanese pension funds is a big factor , as they will increase equity holdings . The pension funds holds multi TRILLIONS. And is looking to swap from bonds into equity .

Lets see how the weeks turns out ,I am long equity short yen and have increased my position this morning .

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

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Good time to convert Yen ?

What a love hate relationship the market has with Abenomics ,
One week they love it , then they don’t , then they do !

Japan ( Prime Minister Abe ) is trying to change a whole country the way of thinking , the way they do business , international role ! I don’t envy his task at all but he has done so much so far , he is one of the highest approval rating of any G8 nation leader and he hasn’t been in power that long!

Yen should you buy or sell ?

All comes down to greed and fear factor .
If you converted ¥ today you get 5% more than you did 2 weeks ago . But I know what some of you are saying but if I converted last year I would have 30% more ! I totally agree with you , then I ask the question why didn’t you ? As you expected it to keep strengthening ?

USD / JPY

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Unemployment figures keep improving I see USD strengthening .

GBP/ YEN

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Looking at the figures coming out the UK the economy is improving at a quicker than expected pace ! £ strengthens .

Euro / Yen

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All comes down to the constitutional court ruling on the EBC bond purchases and is it legal !!
Beurocrats ! Mario Draghi had the balls to do something when the politicians did nothing .

AUD/ JPY

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Election is nearly upon us ! I can see the yen and the ozzy weakening . Could be around the 91.

My advice is if you happy with the price take it , if you in it to speculate and make money be careful , the market turn very quick and you could loose money !

Tony Evans

Japan Becoming Cheaper Place to Send Workers 6th place !- Wall Street Journal

Whoop! Abenomics is working , watch the flow of people back to Tokyo / Japan .

Lets hope Abenomics continues

Tony Evans

Japan Becoming Cheaper Place to Send Workers- Wall Street Journal Full article

Not only is Japan is becoming a cheaper place to swill your favorite sake, according to new research it’s also becoming a more affordable place for companies to send workers.

Thanks to its dramatic currency depreciation in recent months, Japan has started to shed its former notoriety as one of the priciest travel destinations on the planet. Between September and May, the Japanese yen plunged by around 30% against the U.S. dollar. Tourists have responded enthusiastically in droves, with the number of foreign visitors coming to Japan jumping 26% in March over the year before.

Likewise, human-resources consulting company ECA International said Thursday that for the first time in three years its research found that Tokyo no longer claims the world’s title as the most costly place in the world to send workers from overseas. This year, the city was overtaken by Norway’s capital of Oslo, and currently ranks as the sixth-most expensive location for expat workers in the world.

“It’s now cheaper, relatively, to employ staff in Japan and send staff there,” says Lee Quane, ECA’s Asia regional director, adding that he expects more banking and finance companies to be encouraged to add workers to the region. He also notes that it’s becoming more expensive for Japanese companies to send employees to certain locations overseas, as they now have to offer higher cost-of-living allowances.

Meanwhile, Mr. Quane says he expects the currency to continue to depreciate, though not necessarily as quickly as it has in recent months, and that Japanese locations will continue to grow cheaper in the coming months as a consequence.

Consistent with last year, across Asia, the cheapest place to send international assignees remains Karachi or Islamabad, Pakistan. In mainland China, Beijing continues to be the mainland’s most expensive city, ahead of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

ECA’s survey also found that Seoul jumped significantly in its rankings and now clocks in as Asia’s third-most expensive location—up from number seven last year—thanks to greater inflation and currency appreciation. “Korea is starting to catch up with Japanese locations [in terms of price] and even take over in some places,” says Mr. Quane. According to ECA data, the cost of living in Seoul now eclipses Japanese cities including Yokohama, Kobe and Osaka.

ECA’s cost-of-living analysis includes factors such as the price of food and drink, as well as clothing and miscellaneous services. It doesn’t factor in housing costs, car purchases or school fees.

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Has the market got fed up of promises from Abe ?Nikkei – 3.83%

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction. The markets are not impressed ! As such the Stocks
slid as he said the effort won’t begin for months !! Market don’t like a promise of the future , they like it now !! Also people want details not promises .

“It’s hard for the government to raise hopes with the growth strategy — the
third arrow — because it will be some time before it takes effect,” said Junko
Nishioka
, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a
former Bank of Japan official. “The government is going to have to rely on the Bank of
Japan to boost market expectations.”

The growth strategy to be unveiled next week is  part three of the prong attach !It is part of an economic revival plan following fiscal and monetary stimulus. The first two stages were greeted with enthusiasm by investors, stocks BOOMED but now have entered a correction from the biggest rally in a quarter century and the yen has risen against the dollar after touching a four-and-a-half year low.

Abe has vowed to deregulate energy , health , infrastructure and double foreign investment .

Lets see what next weeks delivers .

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/abe-pledges-campaign-to-loosen-japan-business-regulations.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22751158

Nikkei 13,014.90 -518.89 -3.83%

Nikkei Stocks up 1.37% for the week !

What an end to a turbulent week in Tokyo , nearly 10% swings !

Friday stocks rose 1.37% on Friday, as a weakening yen helped the benchmark index rebound from the previous day blood bath of more than 5%.Thursday followed a week of wild volatility in the market which included a a plunge of 7.3%, the worst single-day fall since Japan’s 2011 quake-tsunami disaster.

Nikkei 225 index added 185.51 points to 13,774.54 .

Investor sentiment was buoyed by official data released Friday that showed Japanese factory output expanded by a better-than-expected 1.7% on-month in April, even as the nation remained mired in deflation.

FOREX

The dollar fetched 101.01 yen in Tokyo afternoon trade from 100.74 yen in New York late Thursday, while the euro also strengthened to 131.65 yen from 131.39 yen.

You can say one thing Tokyo ain’t boarding .

Tony Evans

Is this the end to the Nikkei rally and Yen weakness?

When the market opened in Tokyo stocks were widening their losses through the morning session Monday, with the Nikkei tumbling nearly 580 points to move around 14,000. The yen weighed on exporters while players remained jittery over recent volatility in the market.

Is this clients / investors selling ??? Technically yes , but reality is they are selling due to margin call .

This is how the market stands .

Market

Nikkei 225
14,157.34 – 455.11 -3.11%


Currency

 

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

AUD

JPY

101.0000

130.5800

152.7500

97.7820

97.2550

 


 

Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko backed bullish views on asset marker and said Japan could cope with the increase interest rates .The minutes memo from the BOJ meeting on April 26 showed that a few members see difficulties in hitting the 2% inflation. When Kuroda came to power he unveiled a plan to double money in the economy over two years by ramping up bond purchases, chasing a target of 2 % inflation .

I don’t believe anything has changed in Japan the fundamentals have started to change , consumer spending is up and exports have increased also . I still see Nikkei going towards 17000 year end.

Greed and Fear that what moves the market . At the moment fear is rampant ,

 

Tony Evans

Greed & Fear – Thats all the Nikkei movements are this year !!

The last 5 months we have seen a BOOM in Japanese Equity and such sexy returns . Everyone forgot that things go up that fast they can go down the same way !

Yesterday erased $314 billion from the country’s
share value, amid optimism growth in company earnings and the
economy are intact

Yesterday the fear factor kicking in and it was ugly times ugly .

My view of investing is very very simple ,the market moves on :

Greed , Fear and black swans

I can see the Nikkei going much higher , 20/25 ,000 as a decent figure .

Stick to the fundamentals , yesterday was the perfect buying opportunity and yes I did , I filled my boots up and know I am out , profit is only profit when it’s in your pocket .

Buffett :

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Happy Friday

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/asia-stocks-rise-as-japanese-shares-rebound-from-slump.html

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20130524D24SS841.htm

BOJ Meeting – What can we expect ? Another surprise from Kuroda ?

Bank of Japan started a two-day policy meeting, yesterday saw the yen strengthening and Nikkei fall. This morning we have the smell of optimism in the air .

Looking at this the market wants another Kuroda magic , or an intention of more stimulus . Could be a very interesting days ahead .Jitters over the recent volatility in bond markets, hoping it can prevent a renewed spike in yields by fine-tuning market operations.

I can see Kuruda increasing REITS purchases and that will have a huge impact on Japanese property, I can see the mortgage rates increasing ,so my view fix it know !

The economy is in such a better state since Abenomics started and Kuroda surprised the market , does Japan need more stimulus ? It’s like asking a child would you like more ice cream ! The market wants more.

Lets lock and load and see what the end of the weeks have in stall for us

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/uk-japan-economy-boj-idUKBRE94K18G20130521

What Bloomberg was talking about :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/asia-stocks-rise-before-bank-of-japan-ends-policy-meeting.html

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading at a five-year high, before the Bank of Japan concludes a two-day policy meeting. Trading on Hong Kong equity markets will be delayed due to a storm warning.
Sony Corp. (6758) surged 9.6 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported the company’s board may discuss spinning off its entertainment division. Seven West Media Ltd. (SWM) sank 6.6 percent after KKR & Co. sold a stake in Australia’s most-watched television broadcaster.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5 percent to 144.82 as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong opened. Nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge climbed. The measure surged 11 percent this year through yesterday as U.S. economic data improved and the Japanese central bank took steps to counter deflation.
“It is a fairly big day ahead for the yen, with the BOJ set to hit the wires,” said Stan Shamu, a market strategist at IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne, a trading services provider. “This is likely to be the key event in Asia today and will have an impact on the whole risk space. With no policy change expected, traders will be looking for comments regarding efforts to stabilize the bond market.”

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Could the Yen start to strengthen again ?

4530-yen-sinking-in-the-sea
This morning I watched the yen climbing against all major currency in reaction to the Japan’s Economy Minister Akira Amari said a even weaker yen would harm the economy and the people.

I believe the strengthening of the Yen was based on this but also on reaction of North Korea missile launch . The Nikkei continued its advances just showing that they didn’t take notice of the Yen strengthening .

The morning saw the Yen strengthening as much as 1.1%, then calming down ti 0.4% pat 102.86 per $ .Considering the Yen touched 103.31 on Friday , was I surprised ? No as this was simple profit taking .

With the USA economy strengthening and know the Federal Reserve talking about the reduction of quantitative easing , things are looking positive as the dollar the advantage from the perspective of fundamentals . Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on May 22. Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting will be released the same day.

This could be the end of the $85billion a month stimulus .But considering that Japan just started its stimulus this could have a positive effect on Yen ( if you of the opinion a weaker yen is positive ) as then the Yen will becoming the carry trade again . Looking at this 110/120 is very likely .

So No I cant see the yen strengthening I can actually see it weakening by another 10/20% .Abenomics has unleashed a wave of cheap money and I cant see them able to control this genie they released , but it is creating a positive buzz and that’s all it needed to do .

Tony Evans
Tokyo

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-19/yen-climbs-as-japan-signals-negative-impact-from-further-losses.html

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