Posts Tagged ‘ boj ’

Abenomics helped to boost by revised data , BOOMING

Japan's hopes for recovery boosted by revised data.

Japan has revised its growth numbers between January and March, adding to hope of recovery for the world’s third-largest economy.

The Japanese economy grew 1% in the first three months of the year, an increase from the primary estimates of 0.9%.

The cabinet office said that this would indicate a yearly growth of 4.1%.

The revision also had an encouraging effect on investors – the Nikkei 225 index jumped over 3% in early trade.

Martin Schulz of the Fujitsu Research Institute told the BBC that the policy measures introduced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Japanese central bank to drag the economy out of stagnation, spur growth and strengthen the yen – which had fallen by nearly 25% against the US dollar last November – were finally starting to be felt.

These measures included doubling the national money supply and keeping long-term interest rates low in order to boost domestic demand and generate higher consumer prices.

In light of the revised data, which indicated an increase in domestic demand, analysts have said that the Japanese policymakers appear to have had the right idea.

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Good time to convert Yen ?

What a love hate relationship the market has with Abenomics ,
One week they love it , then they don’t , then they do !

Japan ( Prime Minister Abe ) is trying to change a whole country the way of thinking , the way they do business , international role ! I don’t envy his task at all but he has done so much so far , he is one of the highest approval rating of any G8 nation leader and he hasn’t been in power that long!

Yen should you buy or sell ?

All comes down to greed and fear factor .
If you converted ¥ today you get 5% more than you did 2 weeks ago . But I know what some of you are saying but if I converted last year I would have 30% more ! I totally agree with you , then I ask the question why didn’t you ? As you expected it to keep strengthening ?

USD / JPY

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Unemployment figures keep improving I see USD strengthening .

GBP/ YEN

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Looking at the figures coming out the UK the economy is improving at a quicker than expected pace ! £ strengthens .

Euro / Yen

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All comes down to the constitutional court ruling on the EBC bond purchases and is it legal !!
Beurocrats ! Mario Draghi had the balls to do something when the politicians did nothing .

AUD/ JPY

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Election is nearly upon us ! I can see the yen and the ozzy weakening . Could be around the 91.

My advice is if you happy with the price take it , if you in it to speculate and make money be careful , the market turn very quick and you could loose money !

Tony Evans

Is this the end to the Nikkei rally and Yen weakness?

When the market opened in Tokyo stocks were widening their losses through the morning session Monday, with the Nikkei tumbling nearly 580 points to move around 14,000. The yen weighed on exporters while players remained jittery over recent volatility in the market.

Is this clients / investors selling ??? Technically yes , but reality is they are selling due to margin call .

This is how the market stands .

Market

Nikkei 225
14,157.34 – 455.11 -3.11%


Currency

 

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

AUD

JPY

101.0000

130.5800

152.7500

97.7820

97.2550

 


 

Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko backed bullish views on asset marker and said Japan could cope with the increase interest rates .The minutes memo from the BOJ meeting on April 26 showed that a few members see difficulties in hitting the 2% inflation. When Kuroda came to power he unveiled a plan to double money in the economy over two years by ramping up bond purchases, chasing a target of 2 % inflation .

I don’t believe anything has changed in Japan the fundamentals have started to change , consumer spending is up and exports have increased also . I still see Nikkei going towards 17000 year end.

Greed and Fear that what moves the market . At the moment fear is rampant ,

 

Tony Evans

Key Points from the BOJ Meeting

Key Points from the BOJ Meeting

  • Bank of Japan on Wednesday raised its estimate of the economy for the 5 consecutive month amid signs of the recovery is under way .
  • Monetary policy unchanged as it seeks to beat deflation and generate 2% inflation in two years .
  • BOJ board decided unanimously to maintain its policy of increasing the monetary base at annual pace of Y60 trillion to Y70 trillion.
  • Takahide Kiuchi proposed that the central bank’s inflation commitment be characterized as something to be implemented in “the medium to long term,” and that the current easing policy be seen as “as an intensive measure with a time frame of about two years.” But his proposal was voted down 8-1.
  • BOJ made no mention of the recent rises in Japan government bond yields that have unsettled market participants

Basically they have made the choice of policy last month , now they have to wait and see if the policy take effect .

Watch this space .

 

Tony Evans

Image

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/boj-affirms-easing-plan-after-biggest-jump-in-yields-in-5-years.html

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20130522D22JF676.htm

 

BOJ Meeting – What can we expect ? Another surprise from Kuroda ?

Bank of Japan started a two-day policy meeting, yesterday saw the yen strengthening and Nikkei fall. This morning we have the smell of optimism in the air .

Looking at this the market wants another Kuroda magic , or an intention of more stimulus . Could be a very interesting days ahead .Jitters over the recent volatility in bond markets, hoping it can prevent a renewed spike in yields by fine-tuning market operations.

I can see Kuruda increasing REITS purchases and that will have a huge impact on Japanese property, I can see the mortgage rates increasing ,so my view fix it know !

The economy is in such a better state since Abenomics started and Kuroda surprised the market , does Japan need more stimulus ? It’s like asking a child would you like more ice cream ! The market wants more.

Lets lock and load and see what the end of the weeks have in stall for us

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/uk-japan-economy-boj-idUKBRE94K18G20130521

What Bloomberg was talking about :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/asia-stocks-rise-before-bank-of-japan-ends-policy-meeting.html

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading at a five-year high, before the Bank of Japan concludes a two-day policy meeting. Trading on Hong Kong equity markets will be delayed due to a storm warning.
Sony Corp. (6758) surged 9.6 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported the company’s board may discuss spinning off its entertainment division. Seven West Media Ltd. (SWM) sank 6.6 percent after KKR & Co. sold a stake in Australia’s most-watched television broadcaster.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5 percent to 144.82 as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong opened. Nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge climbed. The measure surged 11 percent this year through yesterday as U.S. economic data improved and the Japanese central bank took steps to counter deflation.
“It is a fairly big day ahead for the yen, with the BOJ set to hit the wires,” said Stan Shamu, a market strategist at IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne, a trading services provider. “This is likely to be the key event in Asia today and will have an impact on the whole risk space. With no policy change expected, traders will be looking for comments regarding efforts to stabilize the bond market.”

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Yen makes a break for it , further weakness ? You can bet on it

How exciting the ¥ has broken the illusive 100 mark ! First time in 4 years , so what you think ? This is huge , Abenomics is working .

The yen is ready to weaken even further versus the $ looking at my trading patterns . Next key point is 101.69 then 103.32. We are looking know at 104 as the next key figure to break a pattern called a triangle pattern .

I still see the Yen 105/110 at the end of the year

Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low. In this and other forms of technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a currency, security or index. Support refers to the lower boundary of a trading range, where buy orders may be clustered.

The Bank of Japan increased monthly bond purchases on April 4 to exceed 7 trillion yen ($696 billion) at BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s first policy meeting in charge, exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen forecast by economists! This was a game changer ! The bonds is equal to Turkey GDP!

This is Yen wreaking and $ strengthening , things are looking very positive .

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

In Millionaire capital of the world Tokyo .

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Jim O’Neill Seminar -¥ / Japan / Aussie $ / Brazil Real

Well by sheer charm and standing in Tokyo I was able to get a seat to see a true master of the universe Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill.

•The Bank of Japan can achieve 2% percent inflation within two years and then may need to concern itself with containing prices if it succeeds .
If they are committed he said then they can ,Haruhiko Kuroda has pledged to do “whatever it takes” to beat deflation and plans to double the monetary base!

Goldman Sachslast week increased the outlook on Japanese Equites , my view has always been whatever Goldman does the market follows .
Outlooks for 2013
•Topix – 1,350
•Nikkei 225-16,000

By 2015 they see
•Topix – 1,600
•Nikkei 225-19,000

YEN- ¥
• He believes the consequences of “Abenomics” would be a $/Yen 105-110, but Y120 could happen faster with the US change not being quite so necessary.

Australia

•it’s overvalued !

“A currency I find the most interesting is the Australian $” O’Neill, &“The Australian dollar is significantly overvalued.”

Reason for this is foreign purchase of government debt .

Brazil Real
• The weak economy means there is no appreciation likely .

•Last week the central bank increased interest rate to control inflation.

Manchester United

Always the die hard fan , he’s looking forward for Manchester United winning their 20th title .

What a guy , what a company .

I am so glad that deVere Group is working with Goldman Sachs , it’s going to be amazing

https://www.devere-group.com/news/deVere-Group-Goldman-Sachs-Fund-Advisors.aspx

Tony Evans
Tokyo Japan

Picture was taken as screenshot off Berg.

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