Posts Tagged ‘ Nikkei ’

Japan back in recession

Japan back in recession


A rise in consumer taxes in April has translated into Japan falling into recession, according to reports by the Financial Times.

Data for the quarter between July and September is showing that performance during the period was considerably worse than expected. Expectations of a 2.2% growth were shattered, seeing a 1.6% contraction instead.

As a result, it is now almost a certainty that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone any plans for further increases while appealing for a fresh mandate via a snap election.

The biggest contributor to this decline was the huge cut in firms’ inventories. On its own, this saw 0.6% shaved off of the headline gross domestic product figure. Had there been no change in the inventories, there would have been quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%.

Looking at data on household consumption and capital spending, it is clear that the tax-increase in April, from 5% to 8% have taken a toll. Since that implementation, Japan’s recovery has been “very, very slow”, said Kazuhiko Ogata, chief economist at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

The latest declines come after a contraction of 7.3%, meaning that Japan is now back in a technical recession. This is the fourth since the Lehman crisis.

What a lot of people don’t realise is that the Bank of Japan Governor Kuruda has already placed huge amount of liquidity into the market place in anticipation of this . Looking forward I can see higher growth towards the end of the year , with the BOJ liquidity into the market place and also the Japanese Pension Fund divesting from JPY yen assets for more international asset we will see the effect of this at the end of this year .

 


The magic words to make Nikkei BOOM !

This did make me laugh !

20130927-150014.jpg

$600billion slump in Nikkei sees Monday up 3.38%

What a cracking start to the week , Nikkei is signaling that Japanese shares may arrest a three-week, $600 billion slump!

A slight policy change in Japanese pension funds is a big factor , as they will increase equity holdings . The pension funds holds multi TRILLIONS. And is looking to swap from bonds into equity .

Lets see how the weeks turns out ,I am long equity short yen and have increased my position this morning .

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

20130610-015856.jpg

Has the market got fed up of promises from Abe ?Nikkei – 3.83%

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction. The markets are not impressed ! As such the Stocks
slid as he said the effort won’t begin for months !! Market don’t like a promise of the future , they like it now !! Also people want details not promises .

“It’s hard for the government to raise hopes with the growth strategy — the
third arrow — because it will be some time before it takes effect,” said Junko
Nishioka
, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a
former Bank of Japan official. “The government is going to have to rely on the Bank of
Japan to boost market expectations.”

The growth strategy to be unveiled next week is  part three of the prong attach !It is part of an economic revival plan following fiscal and monetary stimulus. The first two stages were greeted with enthusiasm by investors, stocks BOOMED but now have entered a correction from the biggest rally in a quarter century and the yen has risen against the dollar after touching a four-and-a-half year low.

Abe has vowed to deregulate energy , health , infrastructure and double foreign investment .

Lets see what next weeks delivers .

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/abe-pledges-campaign-to-loosen-japan-business-regulations.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22751158

Nikkei 13,014.90 -518.89 -3.83%

Nikkei Stocks up 1.37% for the week !

What an end to a turbulent week in Tokyo , nearly 10% swings !

Friday stocks rose 1.37% on Friday, as a weakening yen helped the benchmark index rebound from the previous day blood bath of more than 5%.Thursday followed a week of wild volatility in the market which included a a plunge of 7.3%, the worst single-day fall since Japan’s 2011 quake-tsunami disaster.

Nikkei 225 index added 185.51 points to 13,774.54 .

Investor sentiment was buoyed by official data released Friday that showed Japanese factory output expanded by a better-than-expected 1.7% on-month in April, even as the nation remained mired in deflation.

FOREX

The dollar fetched 101.01 yen in Tokyo afternoon trade from 100.74 yen in New York late Thursday, while the euro also strengthened to 131.65 yen from 131.39 yen.

You can say one thing Tokyo ain’t boarding .

Tony Evans

Is this the end to the Nikkei rally and Yen weakness?

When the market opened in Tokyo stocks were widening their losses through the morning session Monday, with the Nikkei tumbling nearly 580 points to move around 14,000. The yen weighed on exporters while players remained jittery over recent volatility in the market.

Is this clients / investors selling ??? Technically yes , but reality is they are selling due to margin call .

This is how the market stands .

Market

Nikkei 225
14,157.34 – 455.11 -3.11%


Currency

 

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

AUD

JPY

101.0000

130.5800

152.7500

97.7820

97.2550

 


 

Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko backed bullish views on asset marker and said Japan could cope with the increase interest rates .The minutes memo from the BOJ meeting on April 26 showed that a few members see difficulties in hitting the 2% inflation. When Kuroda came to power he unveiled a plan to double money in the economy over two years by ramping up bond purchases, chasing a target of 2 % inflation .

I don’t believe anything has changed in Japan the fundamentals have started to change , consumer spending is up and exports have increased also . I still see Nikkei going towards 17000 year end.

Greed and Fear that what moves the market . At the moment fear is rampant ,

 

Tony Evans

Greed & Fear – Thats all the Nikkei movements are this year !!

The last 5 months we have seen a BOOM in Japanese Equity and such sexy returns . Everyone forgot that things go up that fast they can go down the same way !

Yesterday erased $314 billion from the country’s
share value, amid optimism growth in company earnings and the
economy are intact

Yesterday the fear factor kicking in and it was ugly times ugly .

My view of investing is very very simple ,the market moves on :

Greed , Fear and black swans

I can see the Nikkei going much higher , 20/25 ,000 as a decent figure .

Stick to the fundamentals , yesterday was the perfect buying opportunity and yes I did , I filled my boots up and know I am out , profit is only profit when it’s in your pocket .

Buffett :

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Happy Friday

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/asia-stocks-rise-as-japanese-shares-rebound-from-slump.html

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20130524D24SS841.htm

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