Posts Tagged ‘ yen ’

Japan GDP Grows , Manufacting Grows and the Nikkei continues the rally .

Japan GDP raises Nikkei to 15-year high as Asia’s shares dip 

Asian shares took a dip earlier today during a varied day on Wall Street, yet Japan’s better-than-predicted economic growth raised the Nikkei to a 15-year high. 

The dollar climbed a two-month high versus the yen after positive US housing data, and as the euro remained stressed by anticipations that the European Central Bank would increase its bond-buying stimulus as well as on new apprehensions about Greece. 

Athens will not make a payment to the International Monetary Fund that is due on June 5 if there is no deal with its creditors by then, the government’s parliamentary speaker said. 

European shares were seen giving back some of the previous session’s advances, with financial spread betters predicting Britain’s FTSE 100 .FTSE to open around 0.1% lower, and Germany’s DAX .GDAXI and France’s CAC 40 .FCHI were each seen down about 0.4%. 

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down about 0.2%. 
Yet, the Nikkei stock index .N225 ended up 0.9% at a fresh 15-year peak, catching a tailwind from a weaker yen and after data showed Japan’s economy expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the January-March period. That was its fastest pace in a year, exceeding the consensus appraisal for 1.5% growth. 
  

Dollar’s upside capped at ¥95 level | The Japan Times

Without a clear policy from both sides, FED on wether it will start to taper QE and when . then from Abe on his policy on his 3 arrow . Abe will do nothing until the election is over .

Until then 95 will be the norm , but personally I see the USD strengthening in the short term ,commodities weakening also .

Tony Evans

Dollar's upside capped at ¥95 level | The Japan Times.

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Good time to convert Yen ?

What a love hate relationship the market has with Abenomics ,
One week they love it , then they don’t , then they do !

Japan ( Prime Minister Abe ) is trying to change a whole country the way of thinking , the way they do business , international role ! I don’t envy his task at all but he has done so much so far , he is one of the highest approval rating of any G8 nation leader and he hasn’t been in power that long!

Yen should you buy or sell ?

All comes down to greed and fear factor .
If you converted ¥ today you get 5% more than you did 2 weeks ago . But I know what some of you are saying but if I converted last year I would have 30% more ! I totally agree with you , then I ask the question why didn’t you ? As you expected it to keep strengthening ?

USD / JPY

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Unemployment figures keep improving I see USD strengthening .

GBP/ YEN

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Looking at the figures coming out the UK the economy is improving at a quicker than expected pace ! £ strengthens .

Euro / Yen

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All comes down to the constitutional court ruling on the EBC bond purchases and is it legal !!
Beurocrats ! Mario Draghi had the balls to do something when the politicians did nothing .

AUD/ JPY

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Election is nearly upon us ! I can see the yen and the ozzy weakening . Could be around the 91.

My advice is if you happy with the price take it , if you in it to speculate and make money be careful , the market turn very quick and you could loose money !

Tony Evans

Has the market got fed up of promises from Abe ?Nikkei – 3.83%

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction. The markets are not impressed ! As such the Stocks
slid as he said the effort won’t begin for months !! Market don’t like a promise of the future , they like it now !! Also people want details not promises .

“It’s hard for the government to raise hopes with the growth strategy — the
third arrow — because it will be some time before it takes effect,” said Junko
Nishioka
, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a
former Bank of Japan official. “The government is going to have to rely on the Bank of
Japan to boost market expectations.”

The growth strategy to be unveiled next week is  part three of the prong attach !It is part of an economic revival plan following fiscal and monetary stimulus. The first two stages were greeted with enthusiasm by investors, stocks BOOMED but now have entered a correction from the biggest rally in a quarter century and the yen has risen against the dollar after touching a four-and-a-half year low.

Abe has vowed to deregulate energy , health , infrastructure and double foreign investment .

Lets see what next weeks delivers .

Tony Evans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/abe-pledges-campaign-to-loosen-japan-business-regulations.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22751158

Nikkei 13,014.90 -518.89 -3.83%

Nikkei Stocks up 1.37% for the week !

What an end to a turbulent week in Tokyo , nearly 10% swings !

Friday stocks rose 1.37% on Friday, as a weakening yen helped the benchmark index rebound from the previous day blood bath of more than 5%.Thursday followed a week of wild volatility in the market which included a a plunge of 7.3%, the worst single-day fall since Japan’s 2011 quake-tsunami disaster.

Nikkei 225 index added 185.51 points to 13,774.54 .

Investor sentiment was buoyed by official data released Friday that showed Japanese factory output expanded by a better-than-expected 1.7% on-month in April, even as the nation remained mired in deflation.

FOREX

The dollar fetched 101.01 yen in Tokyo afternoon trade from 100.74 yen in New York late Thursday, while the euro also strengthened to 131.65 yen from 131.39 yen.

You can say one thing Tokyo ain’t boarding .

Tony Evans

Is this the end to the Nikkei rally and Yen weakness?

When the market opened in Tokyo stocks were widening their losses through the morning session Monday, with the Nikkei tumbling nearly 580 points to move around 14,000. The yen weighed on exporters while players remained jittery over recent volatility in the market.

Is this clients / investors selling ??? Technically yes , but reality is they are selling due to margin call .

This is how the market stands .

Market

Nikkei 225
14,157.34 – 455.11 -3.11%


Currency

 

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

AUD

JPY

101.0000

130.5800

152.7500

97.7820

97.2550

 


 

Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko backed bullish views on asset marker and said Japan could cope with the increase interest rates .The minutes memo from the BOJ meeting on April 26 showed that a few members see difficulties in hitting the 2% inflation. When Kuroda came to power he unveiled a plan to double money in the economy over two years by ramping up bond purchases, chasing a target of 2 % inflation .

I don’t believe anything has changed in Japan the fundamentals have started to change , consumer spending is up and exports have increased also . I still see Nikkei going towards 17000 year end.

Greed and Fear that what moves the market . At the moment fear is rampant ,

 

Tony Evans

BOJ Meeting – What can we expect ? Another surprise from Kuroda ?

Bank of Japan started a two-day policy meeting, yesterday saw the yen strengthening and Nikkei fall. This morning we have the smell of optimism in the air .

Looking at this the market wants another Kuroda magic , or an intention of more stimulus . Could be a very interesting days ahead .Jitters over the recent volatility in bond markets, hoping it can prevent a renewed spike in yields by fine-tuning market operations.

I can see Kuruda increasing REITS purchases and that will have a huge impact on Japanese property, I can see the mortgage rates increasing ,so my view fix it know !

The economy is in such a better state since Abenomics started and Kuroda surprised the market , does Japan need more stimulus ? It’s like asking a child would you like more ice cream ! The market wants more.

Lets lock and load and see what the end of the weeks have in stall for us

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/uk-japan-economy-boj-idUKBRE94K18G20130521

What Bloomberg was talking about :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/asia-stocks-rise-before-bank-of-japan-ends-policy-meeting.html

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading at a five-year high, before the Bank of Japan concludes a two-day policy meeting. Trading on Hong Kong equity markets will be delayed due to a storm warning.
Sony Corp. (6758) surged 9.6 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported the company’s board may discuss spinning off its entertainment division. Seven West Media Ltd. (SWM) sank 6.6 percent after KKR & Co. sold a stake in Australia’s most-watched television broadcaster.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5 percent to 144.82 as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong opened. Nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge climbed. The measure surged 11 percent this year through yesterday as U.S. economic data improved and the Japanese central bank took steps to counter deflation.
“It is a fairly big day ahead for the yen, with the BOJ set to hit the wires,” said Stan Shamu, a market strategist at IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne, a trading services provider. “This is likely to be the key event in Asia today and will have an impact on the whole risk space. With no policy change expected, traders will be looking for comments regarding efforts to stabilize the bond market.”

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Could the Yen start to strengthen again ?

4530-yen-sinking-in-the-sea
This morning I watched the yen climbing against all major currency in reaction to the Japan’s Economy Minister Akira Amari said a even weaker yen would harm the economy and the people.

I believe the strengthening of the Yen was based on this but also on reaction of North Korea missile launch . The Nikkei continued its advances just showing that they didn’t take notice of the Yen strengthening .

The morning saw the Yen strengthening as much as 1.1%, then calming down ti 0.4% pat 102.86 per $ .Considering the Yen touched 103.31 on Friday , was I surprised ? No as this was simple profit taking .

With the USA economy strengthening and know the Federal Reserve talking about the reduction of quantitative easing , things are looking positive as the dollar the advantage from the perspective of fundamentals . Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on May 22. Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting will be released the same day.

This could be the end of the $85billion a month stimulus .But considering that Japan just started its stimulus this could have a positive effect on Yen ( if you of the opinion a weaker yen is positive ) as then the Yen will becoming the carry trade again . Looking at this 110/120 is very likely .

So No I cant see the yen strengthening I can actually see it weakening by another 10/20% .Abenomics has unleashed a wave of cheap money and I cant see them able to control this genie they released , but it is creating a positive buzz and that’s all it needed to do .

Tony Evans
Tokyo

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-19/yen-climbs-as-japan-signals-negative-impact-from-further-losses.html

Nikkei hits 15,000 , ¥ weakens – How high can the stock go and how low can the ¥ go ?!?

Is it a bird ? Is it a plane ? No that’s the Nikkei going up up and away .:-)

Yen weakness pushed the Nikkei above 15,000 points for the first time in more than five years, you be hard pressed to remember we just gone through the worst financial situation in recent times , only 5 years ago !

$ pushed above 102 – more positive news about the economy .

What joy it is to hear positive news .

Ozzy $ was reacting to the government budget . I see the $aud weakening , the commodity bubble that has made the country very rich is slowing , as such the rest if the economy is extremely uncompetitive .

Long Nikkei , short Yen , short AUD . That’s my trades and also long £ , I can see it recovering second third quarter .

Tony Evans

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Yen makes a break for it , further weakness ? You can bet on it

How exciting the ¥ has broken the illusive 100 mark ! First time in 4 years , so what you think ? This is huge , Abenomics is working .

The yen is ready to weaken even further versus the $ looking at my trading patterns . Next key point is 101.69 then 103.32. We are looking know at 104 as the next key figure to break a pattern called a triangle pattern .

I still see the Yen 105/110 at the end of the year

Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low. In this and other forms of technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a currency, security or index. Support refers to the lower boundary of a trading range, where buy orders may be clustered.

The Bank of Japan increased monthly bond purchases on April 4 to exceed 7 trillion yen ($696 billion) at BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s first policy meeting in charge, exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen forecast by economists! This was a game changer ! The bonds is equal to Turkey GDP!

This is Yen wreaking and $ strengthening , things are looking very positive .

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

In Millionaire capital of the world Tokyo .

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