Posts Tagged ‘ yen ’

Could the Yen start to strengthen again ?

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This morning I watched the yen climbing against all major currency in reaction to the Japan’s Economy Minister Akira Amari said a even weaker yen would harm the economy and the people.

I believe the strengthening of the Yen was based on this but also on reaction of North Korea missile launch . The Nikkei continued its advances just showing that they didn’t take notice of the Yen strengthening .

The morning saw the Yen strengthening as much as 1.1%, then calming down ti 0.4% pat 102.86 per $ .Considering the Yen touched 103.31 on Friday , was I surprised ? No as this was simple profit taking .

With the USA economy strengthening and know the Federal Reserve talking about the reduction of quantitative easing , things are looking positive as the dollar the advantage from the perspective of fundamentals . Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on May 22. Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting will be released the same day.

This could be the end of the $85billion a month stimulus .But considering that Japan just started its stimulus this could have a positive effect on Yen ( if you of the opinion a weaker yen is positive ) as then the Yen will becoming the carry trade again . Looking at this 110/120 is very likely .

So No I cant see the yen strengthening I can actually see it weakening by another 10/20% .Abenomics has unleashed a wave of cheap money and I cant see them able to control this genie they released , but it is creating a positive buzz and that’s all it needed to do .

Tony Evans
Tokyo

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-19/yen-climbs-as-japan-signals-negative-impact-from-further-losses.html

Nikkei hits 15,000 , ¥ weakens – How high can the stock go and how low can the ¥ go ?!?

Is it a bird ? Is it a plane ? No that’s the Nikkei going up up and away .:-)

Yen weakness pushed the Nikkei above 15,000 points for the first time in more than five years, you be hard pressed to remember we just gone through the worst financial situation in recent times , only 5 years ago !

$ pushed above 102 – more positive news about the economy .

What joy it is to hear positive news .

Ozzy $ was reacting to the government budget . I see the $aud weakening , the commodity bubble that has made the country very rich is slowing , as such the rest if the economy is extremely uncompetitive .

Long Nikkei , short Yen , short AUD . That’s my trades and also long £ , I can see it recovering second third quarter .

Tony Evans

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Yen makes a break for it , further weakness ? You can bet on it

How exciting the ¥ has broken the illusive 100 mark ! First time in 4 years , so what you think ? This is huge , Abenomics is working .

The yen is ready to weaken even further versus the $ looking at my trading patterns . Next key point is 101.69 then 103.32. We are looking know at 104 as the next key figure to break a pattern called a triangle pattern .

I still see the Yen 105/110 at the end of the year

Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low. In this and other forms of technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a currency, security or index. Support refers to the lower boundary of a trading range, where buy orders may be clustered.

The Bank of Japan increased monthly bond purchases on April 4 to exceed 7 trillion yen ($696 billion) at BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s first policy meeting in charge, exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen forecast by economists! This was a game changer ! The bonds is equal to Turkey GDP!

This is Yen wreaking and $ strengthening , things are looking very positive .

Lets lock and load

Tony Evans

In Millionaire capital of the world Tokyo .

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Jim O’Neill Seminar -¥ / Japan / Aussie $ / Brazil Real

Well by sheer charm and standing in Tokyo I was able to get a seat to see a true master of the universe Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill.

•The Bank of Japan can achieve 2% percent inflation within two years and then may need to concern itself with containing prices if it succeeds .
If they are committed he said then they can ,Haruhiko Kuroda has pledged to do “whatever it takes” to beat deflation and plans to double the monetary base!

Goldman Sachslast week increased the outlook on Japanese Equites , my view has always been whatever Goldman does the market follows .
Outlooks for 2013
•Topix – 1,350
•Nikkei 225-16,000

By 2015 they see
•Topix – 1,600
•Nikkei 225-19,000

YEN- ¥
• He believes the consequences of “Abenomics” would be a $/Yen 105-110, but Y120 could happen faster with the US change not being quite so necessary.

Australia

•it’s overvalued !

“A currency I find the most interesting is the Australian $” O’Neill, &“The Australian dollar is significantly overvalued.”

Reason for this is foreign purchase of government debt .

Brazil Real
• The weak economy means there is no appreciation likely .

•Last week the central bank increased interest rate to control inflation.

Manchester United

Always the die hard fan , he’s looking forward for Manchester United winning their 20th title .

What a guy , what a company .

I am so glad that deVere Group is working with Goldman Sachs , it’s going to be amazing

https://www.devere-group.com/news/deVere-Group-Goldman-Sachs-Fund-Advisors.aspx

Tony Evans
Tokyo Japan

Picture was taken as screenshot off Berg.

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Yen strengthens – G20 turns on Kuroda ,North Korea next ?

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What a week ,the Yen was like a see-saw , up up up down !! In the end the yen maintained an advance from the end of last week before a Group of 20 meeting where Japan may face criticism over stimulus efforts that have weakened the currency, I do chuckle that the G20 are saying this , as the FEB , ECB and BOE have been doing this for years ! But Japan is doing it to boost inflation .

Japan’s currency touched a one-week high, having slumped to the lowest level in four years on April 11 at just short of 100 per dollar, I was so unhappy at this as I had a position on it touching a 100 ! Its not if it touches 100 but when . After the U.S. Treasury Department said April 12 it would put pressure on Japan to refrain from competitive devaluation. Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda gives two speeches today, after surprising markets on April 4 by doubling monthly bond purchases, seeking to end 15 years of deflation.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has his vision and is adamant he will achieve it . But the BLACK SWAN is North Korea , today there will be a missile launch and as such fear will kick in and yen will strengthen .

As I type this I am listening to John Kerry United States Secretary of State and I am pleased to hear he is encouraging talks but also stating we will not be bullied , strength not appeasement .

Monday is such a great start to the week , it has the promise of all possibilities in the week ahead .

Lock and load ( not the best phrase in the current climate I know !)

Tony Evans

Yen Drops to Lowest Since June 2009 !!

What a cracking start to a Monday , Market Booming and Yen dropping .

The yen dropped to the weakest level since June 2009 as investors sold the currency amid concern measures to fight deflation. Also a lot of the companies now are re setting the hedging they have .

The yen was little changed after finance ministry data showed Japan’s current account surplus, the widest measure of trade, was larger than economists forecast

Lets enjoy this rally , Japan has waited for so long for this , may it last long .

Yen Rates :
$- 98.85
Euro -128.44
£ – 151.2
AUD – 102.086

Tony Evans ,

Bloomberg li

BOOMING BOOMINGJapan’s Nikkei in best shape since 2008

Japan market is BOOMING !
I can feel a massive end to the year , my prediction of over 13,500 was thought of as crazy by many , today I have a big smile , lucky I am not one of those guys that will say I told you you so but I told you so !

Ride the highs and sell the lows ,

Tony Evans

Japan's Nikkei in best shape since 2008.

Japan’s Nikkei in best shape since 2008

The Japanese stock market hit its highest level in almost five years on Friday, after the Bank of Japan ambitious stimulus plan raised hope of economic revival, after years of slow growth.

The main Nikkei 225 stock index climbed as much as 4.7% to 13,225.62 earlier today – its highest since August 2008. By the end of the trading day, the Nikkei closed up 1.58%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday that it plans to double the country’s money supply in an attempt to spur growth and stop prices from falling. The news took investors by surprise as it was a much bigger step than expected and therefore signalled a more aggressive approach towards accelerating economic growth.

Analysts praised BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s bold moves for his understanding of how global markets and investors would react when it comes to monetary policy.

The so-called Abenomics, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policies, have drawn attention of investors who were not previously interest in Japan, according to Economists.

By pumping more money into the system, Japan is hoping to promote price growth, ending a cycle of deflation, recession and sputtering economic recovery. Concurrently, it is also hopes to weaken its currency in order to boost exports.

Notably, in the past two days alone, the Japanese yen declined 4.5% against the US dollar and more than 5% against the Euro.

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